Infectivity of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Korean Metropolitan Area

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Although several characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an ongoing pandemic disease, have been identified, data on the infectivity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are limited. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 based on data of all patients diagnosed with COVID-19 confirmed using real-time polymerase chain reaction test from January to April 2020 in Gyeonggi-do, the largest province in Korea. RESULTS: Of the 502 patients, 298 consisting of 106 clusters with 5,909 contacts were included. Of these, 277 (93.0%) were symptomatic, and the most common symptoms were cough, fever, sputum, sore throat, and headache. A total of 94 patients (31.5%) had pneumonia, while 8 (2.7%) died during the follow-up period. The secondary attack rate (SAR) in the study population was 3.5% (204/5,909). In exposure settings, the SAR was higher in religious gathering (13.5% [95% confidence interval, 10.7-16.8%]), workplaces (8.49% [95% CI, 6.08-11.74%]), and schools (6.38% [95% CI, 3.39-11.69%]) than in health care facilities (1.92% [95% CI, 1.45-2.55%]). Sore throat at any period, dyspnea at diagnosis or any period, lower cycle threshold value in the lower respiratory tract samples, leukocytosis, and higher bilirubin levels were associated with higher infectivity of COVID-19. The presence of symptoms was not related to the infectivity. CONCLUSION: In establishing the infection control strategies for COVID-19, the variables associated with high infectivity may be considered.