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The 10-year multimorbidity trajectory and mortality risk in older people with long-term care needs

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dc.contributor.authorHan, EJ-
dc.contributor.authorSong, MK-
dc.contributor.authorLee, Y-
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-24T06:26:52Z-
dc.date.available2023-03-24T06:26:52Z-
dc.date.issued2022-
dc.identifier.issn0167-4943-
dc.identifier.urihttp://repository.ajou.ac.kr/handle/201003/25079-
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify trajectories of multimorbidity in older adults prior to receiving long-term care benefits and to demonstrate their value in predicting mortality. METHODS: This study included 1,004,924 Korean beneficiaries who completed the National Long-Term Care Insurance (NLTCI) eligibility assessment between 2010 and 2016. Multimorbidity was defined as the coexistence of 2 or more out of 23 chronic diseases related to disability in the 10 years before transitioning to long-term care. Mortality was defined as all-cause deaths after the date of the NLTCI needs assessment. Latent class growth modeling was performed to identify groups that exhibited similar trajectory patterns over time. Sex, age, and long-term care grade were used as covariates. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the mortality rates by trajectories. RESULTS: Three patterns emerged in the multimorbidity trajectory in the 10 years prior to entering the long-term care system: consistently low morbidity ("consistently low"), an abrupt increase in morbidity in less than one year ("catastrophic"), and an increment in morbidity over a longer period ("progressive"). In multiple Cox regression adjusting for covariates, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1-year mortality for the catastrophic and progressive groups were 1.38 (1.36-1.39) and 1.43 (1.41-1.45), respectively, compared to the consistently low group. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified distinct trajectories of multimorbidity in older people accessing the long-term care system and demonstrated their prognostic value for the survival of those with long-term care needs. Treatment and management strategies targeting individuals with a high-risk trajectory are warranted.-
dc.language.isoen-
dc.titleThe 10-year multimorbidity trajectory and mortality risk in older people with long-term care needs-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.identifier.pmid35843024-
dc.subject.keywordLong-term care-
dc.subject.keywordLongitudinal trajectories-
dc.subject.keywordMortality-
dc.subject.keywordMultimorbidity-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthorLee, Y-
dc.type.localJournal Papers-
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.archger.2022.104775-
dc.citation.titleArchives of gerontology and geriatrics-
dc.citation.volume103-
dc.citation.date2022-
dc.citation.startPage104775-
dc.citation.endPage104775-
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationArchives of gerontology and geriatrics, 103. : 104775-104775, 2022-
dc.embargo.liftdate9999-12-31-
dc.embargo.terms9999-12-31-
dc.identifier.eissn1872-6976-
dc.relation.journalidJ001674943-
Appears in Collections:
Journal Papers > School of Medicine / Graduate School of Medicine > Preventive Medicine & Public Health
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