Development of a Simple Scoring System for Predicting Discharge Safety from the Medical ICU to Low-Acuity Wards: The Role of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score, Albumin, and Red Blood Cell Distribution Width

Abstract

Despite advancements in artificial intelligence-based decision-making, transitioning patients from intensive care units (ICUs) to low-acuity wards is challenging, especially in resource-limited settings. This study aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict ICU discharge safety. We retrospectively analyzed patients admitted to a tertiary hospital’s medical ICU (MICU) between July 2016 and December 2021. This period was divided into two phases for model development and validation. We identified risk factors associated with unexpected death within 14 days of MICU discharge and developed a predictive scoring system that incorporated these factors. We verified the system’s performance using validation data. In the development cohort, 522 patients were discharged from the MICU, and 42 (8.04%) died unexpectedly. In multivariate analysis, the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (odds ratio [OR] 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13–1.41), red blood cell distribution width (RDW) (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.07–1.36), and albumin (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.16–0.84) were predictors of unexpected death. Each variable was assigned a weighted point in the scoring system, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.788 (95% CI 0.714–0.855). The scoring system was performed using an AUC of 0.738 (95% CI 0.653–0.822) in the validation cohort of 343 patients with 9.62% of unexpected deaths. When a cut-off of 0.032 was applied, a sensitivity and a specificity of 81.8% and 55.2%, respectively, were achieved. This simple bedside predictive score for ICU discharge uses the SOFA score, albumin level, and RDW to aid in timely decision-making and optimize critical care facility allocation in resource-limited settings.