Analysis of the Population/Pediatric Surgeon Ratio by the Year 2020

Abstract

Ideal population/pediatric surgeon ratio(PPSR) is important in order to keep the quality of the specialty in Pediatric Surgery and it is good for the education of students and surgical residents. This has been done in the USA since the 1970's for estimating the pediatric surgical manpower needs. We investigated population projections, for Korea and the possible number of pediatric surgeon and its ratio to population by 2020. The results were as follows: 1) The pediatric population will decrease to 8,097,000 in 2020 from 10,400,000 in 1993. 2) The number of practicing pediatric surgeons in 1995 were 104. They include 29 members of the Korean Association of Pediatric Surgeons, 35 non-members who are practicing Pediatric Surgery at institutions and a possible 41 general surgeons who are partially involved in pediatric surgery(one tenth of the 409 general hospital in South Korea). We focused our projection on the 47 pediatric surgeons that are actively involved in academic activity and deal exclusively with pediatric surgical patients. 3) The number of pediatric surgeons will increase to 65 from 47 by 2000 due to new pediatric surgeons. 4) Total number of pediatric surgeons(64) in 2020 seems to be in a similar range(64) if the age gap between the 1st and 2nd generation of pediatric surgeons is 15 years. 5) PPSR in 2020 will be 87,000:1 from 220,000:1 (based on 47 doctors) in 1995. 6) A decrease in the PPSR will be more prominent in the rural areas(KyungPook, ChonNam, ChoonPook, KangWon, ChoongPook district) due to a trend of movement to the city areas. PPSR would be more unbalanced in those areas.